Great analysis, with that particular 'rail' being probably the only way for Binance to operate in the US. In the end, crypto regulation is coming and was long overdue. Although, I do not think it will be in time to prevent another blow up. It's becoming increasingly obvious that the FTX 'modus operandi' (or variations of) is an industry-wide international crypto business model.
Your argument is extremely convincing, especially when compared against the revelations about SBF's manipulations and crafty fictions. Reminds me, too, of a brother-in-law who, in cahoots with his brother, devised a cheating "machine" to win at card games in Las Vegas casinos. Eventually they were caught. Why? Because arrogant bravado is always trumped by sloppy stupidity.
The timing of the restart of withdraws on Binance US relative to the $10m deposit does seem to point to these actions being initiated by Binance entities not costumers. Besides, it would be an entirely different problem if billions of dollars were being transferred from one platform to another by US customers, and the shear scale of that hypothetical makes it an incredibly unlikely scenario.
I've seen some also suggest that the rationale for these funds moving is because Binance entities convert all stables to BUSD and then back to your stable of choice. This is of course a ridiculous theory since the Binance entities would need to use that strategy independently of one another.
It makes perfect sense technically to utilise the infrastructure you already have, manage, support and keep secure. Especially when the expertise and resources to duplicate it might not exist in the operating location. Separating Binance US at the level that ticks the boxes (considering how sparse the regulation guidance is) is a smart move if you ask me. Blame the regulators for being slow and out of touch. I mean look at what Apple, Google and MS have managed in avoiding global taxes by similar means.
Confirmation bias is a phenomenon that characterizes with the tendency or behavior to favor, interpret or recall information in a way that supports your pre-existing beliefs and notions without any reasoning or logical evidence. In fact, it is not only confirming the notions, but people also show this tendency while research or gathering information in a selective way .........."I wouldn't have seen it if I didn't believe it"
Incredible stuff. Congrats!
Great analysis, with that particular 'rail' being probably the only way for Binance to operate in the US. In the end, crypto regulation is coming and was long overdue. Although, I do not think it will be in time to prevent another blow up. It's becoming increasingly obvious that the FTX 'modus operandi' (or variations of) is an industry-wide international crypto business model.
Great article again - appreciate your style of writing, really break things down and explain them well.
CZ blocked you on Twitter, though, so...problem solved?
Your argument is extremely convincing, especially when compared against the revelations about SBF's manipulations and crafty fictions. Reminds me, too, of a brother-in-law who, in cahoots with his brother, devised a cheating "machine" to win at card games in Las Vegas casinos. Eventually they were caught. Why? Because arrogant bravado is always trumped by sloppy stupidity.
As long as they are solvent, idc tbh
So there’s two questions to this….
The first is…fraud… are the customer funds actually there… binance, Binance.us, wherever.
Which I guess, with no proof of reserves, audits or whatnot, we will only find out if customer reserves keep being withdrawn
The second is then is Binance breaking US regulatory laws, KYC/AML, etc etc. which seems very likely
Alright. Now I understand the last article and why you guys had not more time for it. Brilliant work here, thank you. Beautiful.
Great work. Eye opening, as Binance, particularly since the implosion of FTX, has been seen as the 'safe' exchange.
The ratio of daily volume to assets for Binance is off the charts.
The amount of wash trading, painting the tape, and crypto price manipulation that takes place on their platform also helps explain the volume.
Want BNB to go up in price? Binance can manipulate it and increase the price with fake trades.
The timing of the restart of withdraws on Binance US relative to the $10m deposit does seem to point to these actions being initiated by Binance entities not costumers. Besides, it would be an entirely different problem if billions of dollars were being transferred from one platform to another by US customers, and the shear scale of that hypothetical makes it an incredibly unlikely scenario.
I've seen some also suggest that the rationale for these funds moving is because Binance entities convert all stables to BUSD and then back to your stable of choice. This is of course a ridiculous theory since the Binance entities would need to use that strategy independently of one another.
Nicely written. From your perspective, what are the chances that these are loans/repayment of loans between the entities and what's your reasoning?
So binance.us is a front for binance global. Does this mean they are FTX 2.0 or something less nefarious?
It makes perfect sense technically to utilise the infrastructure you already have, manage, support and keep secure. Especially when the expertise and resources to duplicate it might not exist in the operating location. Separating Binance US at the level that ticks the boxes (considering how sparse the regulation guidance is) is a smart move if you ask me. Blame the regulators for being slow and out of touch. I mean look at what Apple, Google and MS have managed in avoiding global taxes by similar means.
Have you sent this material to people in Congress and law enforcement?
Confirmation bias is a phenomenon that characterizes with the tendency or behavior to favor, interpret or recall information in a way that supports your pre-existing beliefs and notions without any reasoning or logical evidence. In fact, it is not only confirming the notions, but people also show this tendency while research or gathering information in a selective way .........."I wouldn't have seen it if I didn't believe it"